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利用移动流行区间法（Moving epidemic method, MEM）构建新疆手足口病流行分级预警阈值，为手足口病防控政策的制定与实施提供科学依据。收集2014-2023年新疆手足口病的周发病率，通过绘制周发病率流行曲线确定新疆手足口病的流行高峰；剔除不稳定数据和年份后，选择2014-2019年及2022年6～36周的数据，运用MEM建立流行分级预警模型；选取最优模型评价2023年手足口病的流行情况。新疆手足口病呈现双峰分布特征，流行高峰为6～36周，流行小高峰为37～次年5周；小高峰的模型稳定性较差，因此不做进一步的建模；流行高峰建模过程中2020-2021年的拟合效果较差，予以剔除；最终确定模型的最优参数δ为2.3，合计灵敏度、特异度和约登指数分别为0.78、0.97和0.76，拟合效果较好；2023年新疆手足口病流行高峰的开始阈值为0.51/10万，流行结束阈值为0.76/10万，中、高和极高流行阈值分别为1.87/10万、3.99/10万和5.58/10万。MEM可以用于手足口病监测预警工作的分级预警响应，在应用过程中可以根据实际情况对预警时间进行适当调整。
Abstract：The moving epidemic method(MEM) was employed to establish epidemic classification warning thresholds for hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) in Xinjiang, China, aiming to provide scientific support for the development and implementation of prevention and control policies. Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Xinjiang, China from 2014 to 2023 was collected, with the epidemic peak determined by drawing the weekly incidence curve. After eliminating unstable data and years, data from 2014-2019 and weeks 6-36 of 2022 were selected to build the epidemic classification warning model. The optimal model was selected to assess the prevalence of HFMD in 2023. Results showed a bimodal distribution for HFMD, with the main epidemic peak occurring from weeks 6 to 36, and a smaller peak from week 37 to week 5 of the following year. The model stability for the smaller peak was poor, so no further modeling was performed. The 2020-2021 data exhibited poor fitting and was excluded. The optimal model parameter δ was 2.3, with sensitivity, specificity, and the Jorden index of 0.78, 0.97, and 0.76, respectively, indicating a good fit. The epidemic peak threshold for HFMD in Xinjiang, China in 2023 was 0.51/100,000, with the epidemic end threshold at 0.76/100,000. The thresholds for medium, high, and extremely high prevalence were 1.87/100,000, 3.99/100,000, and 5.58/100,000, respectively. MEM can be applied for hierarchical early warning responses in HFMD surveillance, with the flexibility to adjust warning times based on actual conditions.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13242/j.cnki.bingduxuebao.240306
中图分类号:R725.1;R181.3
引用信息:
[1]邱瑞莹,郜振国,董言,等.移动流行区间法在新疆手足口病流行强度阈值研究中的应用[J].病毒学报,2025,41(04):1028-1036.DOI:10.13242/j.cnki.bingduxuebao.240306.
基金信息:
新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才”医药卫生高层次人才培养计划（项目号：TSYC202301B162）,题目：传染病监测预警工作能力提升及蚊媒传染病研究~~